In meinem letzten Blog ging ich – wie vermutlich die meisten europäischen Intellektuellen – von einem Sieg der zwar unbeliebten, aber berechenbaren Hillary Clinton bei den amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen aus. Es ist anders gekommen und deshalb musste und wollte ich dem letzten Kapitel der Zweitauflage meines Buches doch noch etwas hinzufügen. Unter anderem schrieb ich:

„Was wäre, wenn Hillary Clinton die Präsidentschaftswahlen gewonnen hätte?“ Sieht man von Romanen ab, die ein solches Szenario ziemlich unbedarft und aus Marketinggründen für einen Politthriller verwenden werden, zeigte sich bei dieser Fragestellung Dilemma wie Chancen solcher alternativgeschichtlichen Betrachtungen, vor allem, wenn einige Jahre ins Land gegangen sind: Verursachte hier ein Einzelner, weil Unberechenbarer einen veritablen Wendepunkt zumindest der amerikanischen Geschichte? Oder war die überraschende Wahl Donald Trumps spektakuläres Symptom in einem schon länger globalen historischen Trend? Wir erleben diesen Trend im Westen als Angst vor den Folgen der Globalisierung und Furcht vor Überfremdung, die in einen erstarkenden Nationalismus und eine Hang zu Abschottung und Protektionismus mündet, all dies getragen von einem länderübergreifenden Populismus. Eine kontrafaktische Analyse, die beide Fragen untersucht und kombiniert, kann durchaus zu einem Erkenntnisgewinn beitragen.

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